December 12, 2017

Price target for Bitcoin at $21,119 | Bubble and Risky Asset

Bitcoin- Its not a currency, its a speculative and risky asset class - that in the fullness of time will collapse despite protestations from the Bitonions!.

The year 2018 will be one in which investors come to understand that blockchain technology is real  but that bitcoin is a mirage and will become, like many past schemes, a byword for Ponzi-like nostalgia.

The preoccupation with bitcoin is flat out dumb. It is nothing more than the speculative meal du jour. It will fizzle out and drop dramatically and then the biz media will move on to the next dumb asset class. The coverage is naive and embarrassing.

Bitcoin is now only $4,250 from my price target of $21,119. 
Maybe by next Monday?

I am not short (or long) bitcoin.

via twitter

December 5, 2017

Doug Kass on Tax Reform bill

When history judges this moment, it will not be kind. Central banks, oblivious to the real reasons for low wage inflation, have created a monster bubble and the markets, rather than being frightened by this, have celebrated it.

The passing of a stimulative tax bill that will clearly worsen income inequality and, according to virtually all economists, lead to minimal growth while expanding deficits, despite a nine year economic recovery and 4% unemployment is irresponsible.

When the inevitable bust occurs, the public will justifiably reject corrective recommendations from those who have behaved so imprudently, thereby limiting the ability to re-stimulate.

No inflation? $450 million paintings, wild punting on bitcoins up tenfold by grandmothers at casinos, $100 million NYC apartments?

They have enriched the already rich and for moderate income people they have given them less than 1% in their savings accounts. 

Remember Joseph in the Bible? When things were good, he put grain of the silos to have sustenance for an eventual bad day.

via twitter

December 4, 2017

Shorting the S&P500 futures

"In my personal account shorting S&P futures now in size 2,659.50. Pray for me. And mark your calendars: 9PM 12/3/2017. The last time I personally shorted S&P futures was in August 2007."

"I continue to pound home that each day that goes by we get closer to a much wider monetary tightening next year -- $420 billion to be sucked out by the Fed and about $500 billion less in the way of buying from the European Central Bank. I would note for timing purposes that one trillion of reduced liquidity in 2018 is beginning in just four weeks."

"Investors, both passive and active, remain conditioned to buying every dip no matter how slight in a sprint to this year's finish line as the global volatility short bubble continues to grow."

via twitter, realclearmarkets

November 27, 2017

China stocks decline

The markets warning signposts are multiplying.

Shanghai drops by most in 17 months as bond rout spreads. China is overleveraged. Even BOJ expressing concern with an over bountiful monetary policy.

via twitter