February 12, 2018

We must use history as our guide

The market sell off has caused some bears to be less short.
"With next year P/E on the S&P 500 now below 16, further positive impacts of tax reform and stabilization of bond yields (e.g., note the current record level of CFTC bond short positions), we think that the ongoing market sell-off ultimately presents a buying opportunity."

February 9, 2018

Short Volatility trading

"My impression is that the people that were bullish before this week's liquidity event are still bullish. Many hold to the view that the unwinding of the short vol trade was a one time event. 

What hasn't been addressed is the extent to which the short vol trade contributed to  the bull market over the last 2 years or more.

If short vol trade returns that's one thing, but if it doesn't it seems to me it pulls another leg out of the decade old bull market. "

via twitter

February 5, 2018

Did the bitcoin bubble just burst ?

Bitcoin drops below $8000 and currently trading at around $7314. Doug Kass thinks Bitcoin could drop to $2000 eventually.
"Watching the business media, who now seemed to have all expected this decline,  I am reminded of Buffett's statement: Investment vision is 20/20 when viewed in a rear view mirror."

"No more bitcoin price bugs on CNBC and, hopefully, fewer self professed crypto currency experts who made millions of dollars on a $19 investment - who will be returning to their mother's basement to live. 
Was the business media partially responsible for the broad acceptance of dot com  trading/investing or for flipping homes (because home prices had never declined)?
Is there a shared responsibility for dot com , housing speculation, bitcoin?"

via twitter

January 30, 2018

Where are all the market cheerleaders

Should one be buying stocks when markets are going up ?

"Remember the market cheerleading that urged constant buying? Crickets today.
Remember buying "unusual activity" and out of the money calls on breakouts?Crickets today. 
The biz media emphasized the postives and deemphasize the negative. 
Message?Be emotionless, avoid cheerleading and always assess risk vs reward."

via twitter