August 19, 2019

Doug Kass sells his Gold long position

The recent gold market rally has caused Doug Kass to reduce his Gold longs and he has now sold all his Gold according to his recent post.

"I have reduced my gold position from medium to small-sized. For the second time in several months, we have made out quite well on the GLD long.
I do not worship at the altar of price momentum.
Higher share are my enemy, so I am reducing because of the diminished upside reward vs. downside risk
$GLD was placed on my "Best Ideas List" in mid-April at $120.12. "

August 6, 2019

This Past Week and Weekend Uncovers and Underscores Old Risks and New Concerns

"The decade long transition from active to passive investment management holds some important risks - as the most popular products and strategies worship at the altar of price momentum means that too many live on the same side of the bullish boat. This means that when the primary market trend turns there will be an inordinate amount of selling and few potential buyers."

-via twitter

July 11, 2019

The Jeffrey Epstein Situation

Doug Kass lays out his views on the Jeffrey Epstein case on twitter...

Everyone 'knows' Jeff Epstein - but do they really know him?
As an example, not one person seems to understand how Jeff Epstein made all his money. From a teacher at The Dalton School, to a limited role at Bear Stearns, to a benefactor at Harvard....

It is my view that the Epstein affair has the potential of roiling American industry and politics as well as Wall Street. Palm Beach, Florida is actually a very small town and word gets around quickly.

As a resident of Palm Beach - where Epstein resided - I believe I have some understanding of the depth of his relationships and his financial modus operandi.

I had a similar familiarity of investors (and other details) of the Bernie Madoff scheme - for some of the same reasons (locale and my social relationships).

The nature of Epstein's deeds (that he was jailed for) is heinous and I don't plan to discuss this any further. But there will likely be broad and unpleasant reverberations.

Some stocks and certainly some reputations may take large hits in the time ahead.

June 27, 2019

US economic growth is slowing while stock market valuations are high

Doug Kass thinks the US economic growth is slowing while stock market valuations dont seem reasonable based on fundamentals. Below is an excerpt from his twitter post.

Regardless of my interpretation this morning, during the day we received more confirmation of slowing domestic economic growth and the message of the continued drop in yields (-3 basis points, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury closed at 1.99%) was also loud and clear.

The rate of U.S. economic growth is decelerating markedly, valuations are extended, and a number of fundamental headwinds and concerns are pressing against a market that is very close to an all-time high.

Over the last few days, the business media has seemed to have echoed the notion that we are in a small pause that refreshes. For this to be accurate, we probably need a trade deal with China and my notion of The Fed Pushing on A String must be incorrect.

I don't think we will see a trade deal "with teeth" nor do I think taking down the federal funds rate from 2.40% to about 2% (or lower) will have much of a positive economic impact. 
That said, it sure looks like the market has again been repelled at similar levels achieved