April 27, 2017

Stock market topping process

Stock market topping is a process and usually takes a while. The last 3 or 4 months we may be in an important stock market top. Doug Kass thinks that one may be wise to shorten your investing time frame as a strategy.

Kass also criticizes the Algo and Quant traders even though it benefits traders like himself,
"The lack of consistency and trend suggests to me that machines, algos, price trending strategies and ETFs (rebalancing late in the day) form the basis of exaggerated intraday moves. The role of risk parity and volatility trending strategies is chopping up experienced traders and leading a number of high profile hedge hoggers to close down. This provides an ideal setting for us "littler guys," opportunistic traders who unemotionally buy weakness and sell strength."

April 25, 2017

Can Trump succeed on Tax Reforms when he was not able to pass thru Health Care Reforms

"Remember when the big argument in favor of President Trump was that he was a deal-maker who knew how to get things done? That was when he was doing real estate deals. Now he has to deal with 535 other politically partisan legislators in Congress--on their own real estate turf."

April 24, 2017

Bonds buying climax

Dow Futures are up 205 points at the moment. The market looks set to have a big open after the news from the French elections.

Doug Kass has and is moving to a position of being tactically long in net exposure terms. He intends to stay long but ready to short stocks if needed. He thinks the market will go higher and exceed true valuations partly due to price momentum strategies.

Position: Short TLT

April 20, 2017

Showing off US military strength could work

With Donald Trump bombing Syria and then later following up with another strike dropping a "MOAB" in Afghanistan, it could help reduce the chance for major conflicts around the world.

Doug Kass writes, 
"The flight-to-safety trade -- a byproduct of rising political and geopolitical risks -- may be in the process of peaking as the world stage becomes convinced that while Trump's military initiatives have made headlines, they may not be as dangerous as many believe and will not likely result in major conflicts in North Korea, Syria and elsewhere."