March 10, 2020

This is some of the worst action I can remember in my career.

History's lesson
Not that we should be beholden to history but over time, at periods of market duress like these, Black Mondays have an afternoon rally that fails and stocks close at or near their lows.
And the next day, Tuesday, the gap lower is the time to buy. 

Disasters have a way of not happening and value almost always emerges out of panic
via twitter

February 18, 2020

On Cannabis stocks

"It will not likely be until 2021 that $ will be made getting "chai" on cannabis stocks. Probably alot of money will be made next year - but not until the weak is separated from the chaff."

"2020 will be a year in which many publicly held cannabis companies will face massive cost cuts, financial restructuring and defaults/bankruptices. 

Supply/demand still way out of balance, health apps disappointing and managements still too promotional."

December 24, 2019

Doug Kass on Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett may acquire Fedex next year 2020

"I see Berkshire as basically an S&P-like stock— it’s so diversified now... in terms of its industrial and financial components that its very hard for the Oracle of Omaha to move the needle with any acquisition etc."

November 5, 2019

The market sentiment has changed

Doug Kass via twitter explains an indicator that shows the current investment sentiment.

The CNN Fear/Greed at 86 and 'extreme greed' read and the highest level since late 2017 during the euphoria over the tax reform bill. The index, which ranges between 0-100 was 8 one year ago and 67 just one week ago. The market rallied right into mid January 2018 so don't use this as a timing tool but do realize how much the mood has changed. What separates this index from II and AAII is that it measures what people are actually doing rather than just the emotions of II and AAII.

It encapsulates the put/call ratio, the difference in the 20 day return between stocks and bonds, how extended the S&P 500 is above its 125 day moving average, the McClellan volume summation index, new 52 week highs vs 52 lows, the yield spread between high yield and IG bonds, and lastly the VIX. We'll get the II figure tomorrow and expect a further stretch between Bulls and Bears to around  40.

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