January 22, 2014

Doug Kass: 15 investment ideas for 2014

Surprise No. 1: Slowing global economic growth and fears of stagflation emerge.
Strategy: Buy index puts, sell index calls, or purchase inverse ETFs.

Surprise No. 2: Corporate profits disappoint.
Strategy: Buy index puts, sell index calls, or purchase inverse ETFs.

Surprise No. 3: Stock prices and P/E multiples decline.
Strategy: Buy index puts, sell index calls, or purchase inverse ETFs.

Surprise No. 4: Bonds outperform stocks.

Surprise No. 5: A number of major surprises affect individual stocks and sectors.
Strategy: Buy C/short BAC pair trade, short SBUX, short 3D Systems (DDD), short AAPL calls, buy AMZN common and calls, buy GS, buy AAMC, buy MONIF, short GM, buy Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP), short Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) and Market Vectors Retail ETF (RTH), and short QQQ.

Surprise No. 6: Volkswagen AG acquires Tesla Motors.

Surprise No. 7: Twitter's shares fall by 70% as a disruptive competitor appears.
Strategy: Short Twitter (TWTR) common and buy TWTR puts.

Surprise No. 8: Buffett names successor.

Surprise No. 9: Bitcoin becomes a roller coaster.
Strategy: Buy and then short bitcoins

Surprise No. 10: The Republican Party gains control of the Senate and maintains control of the House.
Strategy: Buy everything.

Surprise No. 11: Hillary Clinton bows out as a presidential candidate.

Armed militia
Surprise No. 12: Social unrest and riots appear in the U.S.

Surprise No. 13: Africa becomes a new hotbed of turmoil and South Africa precipitates an emerging debt crisis.
Strategy: Short iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF).

Surprise No. 14: The next big thing? A marijuana IPO rises by more than 400% on its first day of trading.

Surprise No. 15: An escalation of friction between China and Japan hints at war-like behavior between the two countries.
Strategy: Short iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).






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