March 3, 2014

Sometimes no explanation for market movement

Not every move in the markets is explainable, though far too many observers attach a reason for every wiggle and move. (Consider the 5% correction that was recently erased. Why? I have no clue, though many express a strong understanding in the moves.)

To some, the projection of confidence of view is seen as a validation of an intense and rigorous decision-making process. Increasingly, however, many are fooled by the abbreviated, simplistic, staccato- like explanations and conclusions, because, more often than not, the snark is shown to be wrong in short order as the curtain disclosing a mere human (not the Wizard of Oz) is revealed.

In a market that has many feeling uber smart, there are too many Good Will Huntings (i.e., geniuses) and not enough Jeff Spicolis out there these days who say "I don't know."

My experience is that the most valuable views are based on intensity of hard-hitting and time-consumptive analysis less valuable (though self-confident) views that are three miles long but only a few inches deep in knowledge can get viewers/listeners in a lot of investment "hot water" and are not healthy for your financial well-being.