February 2, 2015

Doug Kass Super Bowl indicator 2015

Back in January 2000, I created a brand new stock market Super Bowl indicator as a contrary indicator, very similar to the cover of Time.

My indicator dictates that the more intense the Super Bowl TV advertising by a group of companies, particularly in a specific industry, the more likely the stocks of those companies will perform poorly in the year ahead. 

In summary, we might conclude from the historic causality between my indicator and the industry composition of Super Bowl advertisers that headwinds could be facing the shares of technology companies (which represent more new entrants than any sector in 2015). 

On the other hand, the disappearance of a number of auto advertisers in 2015 could spell an upbeat outlook for automobile manufactures' stocks (it's a contrarian indicator).