June 30, 2016

Surprise prediction sees Donald Trump dropping out of presidential race ?

Trump is already about 5% to 7% behind Democrat Hillary Clinton in the major polls, and his campaign is arguably in disarray. He fired his campaign manager and his campaign's finances are low.

It's my view that Trump will fall much further behind Clinton as his campaign evolves and develops after the July 18-21 GOP convention in Cleveland.

Funding Issues

Let's assume that Trump continues to face a lack of support from many GOP leaders, Republican political operatives, large contributors and House and Senate members (who are worried about their own political fates).

In that case, it's easy to see Trump falling even further behind Clinton in the polls. Embarrassing defeats in the first two televised debates on Sept. 26 and Oct. 9 could then lead to a more than 10% polling deficit for The Donald.

If that happens, we could foresee Trump's war chest failing to attract funds and dwindling rapidly. 

He seems like an independent but tightly wound and impatient individual, given to making impetuous statements and policy pronouncements and unwilling to listen to even his own consultants.

The Surprise

In this scenario, Trump would have few endorsements from within his own party, and he'd find by mid-October that his campaign's many flaws had been exposed in the presidential debates and other venues.

Add in a dwindling war chest and dramatic drop in the polls that had him trailing Clinton by low double digits and I could see Trump announcing after the second debate that he'd "no longer actively campaign."

In effect, he'd quit the race, becoming the first major-party presidential candidate to not actively participate in his own campaign. While Trump would technically remain on the ballot, Clinton would essentially run unopposed.

In this scenario, I could see Trump winning electoral votes in just Mississippi. He'd wind up losing to Clinton by the largest popular- and electoral-vote deficit ever, trailing even George McGovern's 1972 landslide loss to Richard Nixon.