September 7, 2016

Indications that US consumers struggling

I continue to contend that the U.S. economic outlook is deteriorating rather than improving relative to expectations, and that the much-heralded consumer "recovery" might soon fade.

The evidence out just this morning includes:

-    Weak same-store comparisons for Costco (COST)

-    More signs of "Peak Autos."

-    Weakness in both the Purchasing Managers Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

-    Falling oil prices, coupled with a number of other declining commodities.

Add it all up and I continue to expect no Federal Reserve rate hikes over the balance of 2016.