August 28, 2018

Stock market risks for 2018

Doug Kass writes of the threats he is seeing in the stock market on realinvestmentadvice and the changing narratives for bulls.

"Not only do we face Peak GDP, we are seeing Peak Global GDP growth, as witnessed by a two-year low in Citigroup‘s European economic surprise index. It was only seven months ago that synchronized global growth was the buzz."

On why the markets may be near a peak

"While bulls are anticipating acceleration in the rates of U.S. and non-U.S. economic growth and an extension in the expansion in corporate profits, the reality, based on recent high-frequency economic data, is that the global economy is slowing in its trajectory and that growth in corporate profits will tail off shortly. This is a nonconsensus view and forms the basis for my ursine market view."