August 26, 2019

Most Market forecasters are not very good at making the right calls

There are many traders making bold stock market forecasts on TV but most are unfortunately wrong in their forecasts according to Doug Kass.

A year ago there was unanimity that the ten year US note yield would rise above 3%. Besides myself and Shilling I don't know anyone who was looking for lower rates.
Today there is unanimity that rates will continue to drop.
I take the opposite position.
The bond market is in a bubble of major proportions.
According to my calculus the 10 year is implying real GDP growth of only about +0.25%

-via twitter