September 9, 2019

Investment management is not hitting for averages like in baseball -- it's more about your defensive ability.

Doug Kass questions if Moving Averages can be used for Timing the market. If it only were so simple, everyone would be rich. 

Indeed with as much as 80% of the trading derived from the activity of ETFs and machines/algos we are all momentum players now and the market is now one big casino. The all too confident moving monkeys (who believe in the importance and integrity of the moving averages) then pile on the aforementioned products and strategies that shove prices higher. (Memo to those fin TV commentators - if it was so easy every 10 year old would drop out of elementary school and trade against the moving averages).

I prefer to listen to The Oracle who famously stated, "The market in the short term is a voting machine and in the long run it is a weighing machine."

And my scale is currently tipped over to excessive optimism and to elevated stock prices.
In the fullness of time.





- via twitter

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