May 21, 2018

Rate increase | Momentum VS Fundamental investing

Why is the recent rate rise dangerous?  Because, when assessing the impact of a rate rise we should observe debt service as a product of two independent variables: the amount of debt and the interest rate imposed on that debt. 

I am beginning to think that with the exception of Warren Buffett, everyone worships at the altar of price momentum.
Nearly every commentator cites "levels."
I am so old I remember fundamental investing.

via twitter

May 16, 2018

May 3, 2018

Signs of a Matured company

"Analyst on @cnbcfastmoney thinks a large $AAPL acquisition would be a positive for the stock.
In my analysis, I write the opposite...
Buybacks and large acquisitions (most are doomed at birth) are typically signposts that a company has matured."

via twitter

April 20, 2018

Bonds and Stocks Recouple

Doug Kass points out the relationship between stocks and bonds....

Bonds and Stocks Recouple

* Beware of the bond vigilantes
* And the recoupling could have consequences

With both stocks and bonds declining, risk parity, volatility and other risk asset trending strategies suffer and are forced to derisk.

I believe if this relationship continues (and I believe it could), we could be at the start of a meaningful near term stock market correction - particularly if the bond vigilantes reemerge ever years in their caves.